TBR Drop - Dec 13, 2023 (1.Viewing)

bmetal said:
WHC got 14 domains in the first throw (4.9 timestamps are second throw). I have NO idea how many times they wrote rm.ca on a dart. I have no idea how WHC chooses which domains to write on which darts. I do know we've recently seen them register 79 domains in a 5 second window, so they're throwing at LEAST that many darts.

Every dart has a cost ($1000/thread, 52 weeks in a year, aproximately, $20 per first round dart ). If you allocate 50 darts to rm.ca, you're guaranteed that 49 will NOT get a domain.

Given that their best rm.ca dart was 5th out of their 14 1st round registrations, you might be able to make a good guess at how many of their darts had rm.ca on them. Anyone here good at statistics? Permutations and combinations? Damn, is my degree really three decades old? Can approximate without permutation... just what percentage or darts have rm.ca on them so that you have to go to the 5th pick before your chance of getting an rm.ca dart exceeds 50% ... about 15-16% of the requests are rm.ca ? Yeah, that seems low/odd or really bad luck (or the bidding wasn't as focused on rm.ca as we might think).

(the dart board is a better example if you cut the dart board in half, anything below a perfect bullseye is too early and doesn't count. Lots of 4.99 and 5.00 registrations today, so there were lots of too earlys.)

Yes, we do spread our actual requests out over an interval (thus the late/failsafe reference above), but it's a surprisingly short window, and there isn't much of a correlation between the timestamp returned and when the thread was launched.

my apologies for rambling/the long post. - Tom
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Great explanation and several threads were solely on rm.ca today and some of the prominent Registrars with many threads, missed out catching the others.
 
bmetal said:
A fairly good analogy is grabbing a handful of darts (one for each thread), writing a domain name on each, and throwing them (all at once) at the dartboard. If you've got 100 threads, you're going to write rm.ca on a lot of those darts, giftbasket.ca on quite a few, and some names you'll only write once. Some domains you'll save for the second round. In this case, the timestamp is how close that dart came to a perfect bullseye.
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Oh, I know there is a lot of randomness built in, but my main question is that why would low-bid/low-end domains like VosClassees, Vicki, and BusinessMail be on enough darts to finish 3rd, 4th and 5th, and ahead of RM (not to mention ahead of RSS, Contemporary, Optimus, Montage, and whole bunch more)?

It's not what they missed, it's what they caught before RM was even selected.

GiftBasket and JCL I get, that's just luck, but I really don't understand how WHC organizes their first-round of "darts" to get a crazy result like that. Either this is one of the greatest statistical anomalies ever (each of them had 1 dart of 100 at WHC and a lesser percentage overall but still hit 3-4-5), or there has to be a flaw or mistake somewhere in the process.
 
DomainRecap said:
Oh, I know there is a lot of randomness built in, but my main question is that why would low-bid/low-end domains like VosClassees, Vicki, and BusinessMail be on enough darts to finish 3rd, 4th and 5th, and ahead of RM (not to mention ahead of RSS, Contemporary, Optimus, Montage, and whole bunch more)?

It's not what they missed, it's what they caught before RM was even selected.

GiftBasket and JCL I get, that's just luck, but I really don't understand how WHC organizes their first-round of "darts" to get a crazy result like that. Either this is one of the greatest statistical anomalies ever, or there has to be a flaw or mistake somewhere in the process.
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I was too slow to go back and highlight my estimation that they wrote rm.ca on about 16% of their darts and then agreed with you.

IF 5 out of every 6 darts have another name on them, it isn't surprising rm.ca wasn't their best or even second best score.

Same math says there was a 60% chance that one of our two best scores should have been rm.ca (and obviously it wasn't).

"... lies, damned lies, and statistics" : )

(my apologies if you DID read that.)
 
bmetal said:
IF 5 out of every 6 darts have another name on them, it isn't surprising rm.ca wasn't their best or even second best score.

Same math says there was a 60% chance that one of our two best scores should have been rm.ca (and obviously it wasn't).
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I did read it, and I agree... to a point and if even one of them had been of a "GiftBasket/JCL" level of quality/demand, I wouldn't have mentioned it.

But 3 low-end domains with low number of bids hitting 3-4-5 before RM, RSS, Optimus, Contemporary, Headline, Montage, UMC, etc., etc. is one of those "things that make you do hmmm".

If I were WHC I would take a close look at the math and see exactly how that happened. If it's just a 1 in a billion shot, then there's nothing you can do, but otherwise....

Calculating Oh No GIF by MOODMAN
 
MapleDots said:
I noticed WHC picked up both fiddle.ca and fiddles.ca

I see fiddle on auction but no fiddles
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Fiddles was probably a min-bid win.

I'm not a big fan of Fiddle either as it's not really a stand-alone brand.
 
silentg said:
I am going to put $9,999 bid. :p
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Seriously, it's going to bid up to that anyways, it might as well boil down to those that want it bad enough.

If it only goes for that I'll be happy to get it so bid away my good man.

Now if you're not prepared for the consequences you might be surprised if I stopped at $9,550 ;)
 
silentg said:
I am going to put $9,999 bid. :p
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Exactly, and although it may go higher, there is always the chance that no one wants to go over $8K or something and you save some money.
 
I just put in a bid for $5555, which is my max. Would love to own a 2 letter .ca but just don't have the bankroll right now.
 
MapleDots said:
Now if you're not prepared for the consequences you might be surprised if I stopped at $9,550 ;)
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But you said you weren't lying about the $10K, so one of these statements is a lie.
 
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clarkemarketing said:
I just put in a bid for $5555, which is my max. Would love to own a 2 letter .ca but just don't have the bankroll right now.
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Me too, and I need to look at the bottom line and it's just not worth it. Maybe a bit later when I'm feeling a bit more foolish.

These high-profile TBR domains are just "fun money" purchases, as I could make a LOT more money buying 100 TBR domains for $100 each.
 
DomainRecap said:
But 3 low-end domains with low number of bids hitting 3-4-5 before RM, RSS, Optimus, Contemporary, Headline, Montage, UMC, etc., etc. is one of those "things that make you do hmmm".
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You can't really tell though if we didn't try for those before, as you won't see failed attempts. As Tom says the order the requests are send in does not necessarily match the order of the results.

@bmetal : I really like the darts analogy.
 
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